The Ethical Skeptic provides a PUNISHING treatise on EXCESS mortality for week 47 of 2023, the 195th week of the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic; Ethical must run analysis to include deaths due to i)denial of
treatment in hospitals March 2020 onwards ii)deaths due to the lockdowns & school closures iii)due to the mRNA vaccine iv)due to medical management (sedation, Remdesivir, ventilator (2nd Smartest)
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‘The State of Things Pandemic – Week 47 2023
Posted on December 11, 2023 by The Ethical Skeptic
A summary regarding the various types of alarming excess mortality, for week 47 of 2023, our 195th week of the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic.
As of Week 47 of 2023, 3.75 years into the Covid-19 Pandemic and its aftermath, 1,526,543 excess deaths have been recorded to date. Now certainly, the SARS-CoV-2 virus was a deadly pathogen, itself 6.6 times more deadly than the typical annual mortality total for all influenza viruses combined. However, as the reader will infer from the material below, it was the panic-fueled, and in some cases malicious, actions of those few in power which have served to precipitate the larger part of total excess mortality during the pandemic, as well as post-pandemic, periods.
As of November 25th 2023, there have been
628,800 Excess Non-Covid Natural Cause Deaths,
170,110 Excess Non-Natural Deaths, and
372,838 Excess Deaths from Denial of Treatment,1
354,795 Excess Deaths from the SARS-CoV-2 virus (6.6 x annual influenza-pneumonia)2
making for a grand total of 1,171,748 Manmade Excess Deaths of US Citizens, out of a Pandemic Total Excess Mortality of 1,526,543.
A wide diversity of ‘Omicron’ variants were discovered to have been percolating throughout global populations in 2021 (we contend that the genetics indicate, since 2017), featuring a Case Fatality Rate which turned out to be curiously on par with the well-established annual influenza mortality benchmark (a metric of human frailty as opposed to necessarily just pathogen virility – see Chart 1 below).
Thus, it became increasingly clear throughout our analysis that most of the globe (having already been exposed to lower-mortality proto-Covid variants) fared Covid-19 relatively well because of the advance immunity imparted in the years prior to the official pandemic. Moreover, that disruption, lockdowns, iatrogenics, denial of treatment, along with our quod fieri final solution, have collectively served to kill the majority (namely 1,171,748, or 76.8%) of the US Citizens who died during the 195 weeks of the pandemic thus far. It is clear, despite the original danger presented by the Wuhan through Delta variants of the SARS-Cov-2 virus, that this circumstance quickly escalated into a man-made tragedy within the United States and other Western nations.
USA Nominal Excess All Cause Mortality – 4.9%
The beige line in the chart below shows the actual CDC Wonder deaths per week for the two years prior, as well as years-of and years-post the pandemic. The dark orange baseline is normalized from the years 2014-2019, representing a 1.4% annual growth in mortality for the US in terms of all causes. This 6-year baseline reflects a balance between a retrospective lengthy enough to provide statistical significance, but not so long as to be confounded by generational effects or immigration impacts.
Chart 1 – Excess All Cause Mortality (USA) – without pull forward effect (without PFE, or ‘nominal’) resides solidly at 4.9% excess. With pull forward effect taken into account, this excess is at 7.4% or 4,291 persons per week. A portion of this excess is Non-Natural or Covid-19 excess mortality – thus, Non-Covid Natural Cause Excess Mortality stands at 4.9% or 2,485 persons per week. Excess Non-Natural Mortality stands at 15.5% or 781 persons per week. Pandemic mortality totals are shown in the beige set of statistics on the left hand side of the chart. Notice that Wuhan-Delta variants were 6.6 times more deadly than are the more-highly-diverse and immune-system-familiar ‘Omicron’ variants. Take this as a hint.
Balance Sheet – USA Excess All Cause Mortality – 7.4%
When examining excess mortality metrics and considering them in the context of the broader summary of excess mortality, the resulting balance sheet (shown in Chart 2 below) is derived. A crucial distinction between systems analytics and mere ‘statistics’ resides in the requirement for systems dynamics to comprehensively depict an entire schema of interdependent relationships, in terms of both end-to-end agreement and coherence. Such systems engineering expertise and rigor characterizes both my academic foundation as well as my five-decade-long professional career. Such exemplifies as well the distinction between a hack or journeyman technician, versus a real scientist.
When individuals express disagreement with the parameters or approaches I utilize in my models, it’s important to note that they enjoy the luxury of not having to substantiate their one-off contentions through the accountability of a coherent system in its entirety. This is exemplified in part by the ‘Balance Sheet’ in Chart 2 and the Deviation from Trend (DFT) inflections depicted in Charts 10 through 12 below – which all feed into a single coherent system involving thousands of hours in its development.
I tend to be cynical regarding most disagreements from amateurs or even medical professionals, because these unqualified objections tend to be unaccountable, conducted in isolation, and serve to introduce incoherence into the overall model. Yet their proponent is conveniently and lazily unaware of this. Credibility is earned by engaging in the meticulous and intensive work entailed in describing a system, not in running stand-alone stats, deceptive linear regression graphs, or academic poseur heuristics. Such tools will not make up for shortfalls in acumen, integrity, experience, or effort – and the ruse is easily detected by an experienced systems professional.
For instance, making the baseless or linear-extrapolated and lagged claim ‘There is no increase in cancer mortality’, in a vacuum, and not even knowing what an ‘MCoD’ or ‘Spring Lull’ is, constitutes an act of appeal-to-ignorance deception. So much more than pablum is required from these claimants – and no matter how much they scream and insist, they are still wrong (see Excess Cancer Mortality in Charts 5 and 6 below). In the realm of systems analysis, adherence to such a professional standard is paramount, and I make no apologies for upholding it.
That being said, let’s now examine the various metrics of excess mortality as of week 47 of 2023.
Chart 2 – Excess Mortality Weekly Balance Sheet (USA) – a summary of all forms of excess mortality, with pull forward effect (PFE) taken into account. PFE must be included, because each of the Big 12 ICD codes, ranked in terms of percentage excess in the chart above (beige boxes), contains pull forward effect. The tapered impact of PFE can be observed as indicated by the red annotation in the chart. The reason that negative numbers still exist in these figures is because we have chosen a conservative PFE allocation, which is overcome by the actual PFE in those mortality codes which impact the elderly the hardest. This PFE was confirmed by the Society of Actuaries in their Covid-19 Mortality Survey Report of November 2023.
The reader should note that the CDC eliminated reporting of the Big 12 ICD categorizations (their Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report) at the end of October 2023. This data set was useful in helping spot anomalies (‘pull forward effect’ for instance) in the rates of death in the US. Just as in the case of their refusal to release vaccine cohort data or spurious VAERS record disappearances, data sets effective in targeting the harm introduced by the Covid-19 mRNA vaccine are all being systematically screened from public access. We put together a scrape which assembles the same data from Wonder, as one used to be able to obtain from the CDC Weekly MMWR Report, so that we are able to continue this tracking (that is, until they eliminate Wonder altogether and simply appeal to tyrannical authority in its absence).
The following charts all feed systemically into and reconcile inside the summary balance sheet above.
USA Excess Non-Covid Natural Cause Mortality – 4.9%
The beige line in the chart below shows the CDC Wonder Excess Non-Covid Natural Cause deaths per week for the two years prior, as well as years of and years post the pandemic. The dark orange baseline is normalized from the years 2014-2019, representing a 1.12% annual growth in mortality for the US in terms of all non-Covid natural causes. Just as in the case of all this specie of charts, the 6-year baseline reflects a balance between a retrospective substantial enough to provide statistical significance, but not so long as to be confounded by generational effects or immigration impacts.
Chart 3 – Excess Non-Covid Natural Cause Mortality (USA) – stands at 4.9% or 2,485 persons per week over the last seven weeks on average (+2,150 during week 47 itself). A total of 628,800 US Citizens have died primarily due to the major factor which has impacted this metric (the mRNA vaccine). This is far more than the 355,000 persons who died from the SARS-CoV-2 virus itself during the pandemic (excludes deaths from denial of treatment).
Perhaps the only good news to be found within Chart 3 above is the flattening in this Excess Mortality trend over the last year. This may well simply be an impact of the pull forward effect (because of our conservative choices with regard to its metrics), so we will watch how this excess trends over the outyears in order to discern what is indeed occurring.
USA Excess Non-Natural Mortality – 15.5%
The beige line in the chart below shows the CDC Wonder Excess Non-Natural Cause deaths per week for the two years prior, as well as years-of and years-post the pandemic. The dotted baseline is normalized from the years 2014-2019, and comprises a 1.42% annual growth in mortality for the US in terms non-natural causes. This reflects excess mortality from unsound lockdown and open border practices, in terms of suicide, addiction, assault, accidents, abandonment, and despair (SAAAAD). Disruption (loss of access to medical services or medications) deaths are now included inside iatrogenic and denial of treatment tallies (medical mistakes).
Chart 4 – Excess Non-Natural Mortality (USA) – stands at 15.5% or 781 persons per week over the last seven weeks on average.
It is our hope that the downward trend in this metric since mid-2021 continues until this mortality recovers its baseline.
USA Excess Cancer Mortality – 5.4% with Novel 1.9% CAGR
The green-to-red line in Chart 5 below shows the CDC Wonder Excess Attributions of underlying cause of death Cancer to multiple cause of death Cancer, per week for the two years prior, as well as years-of and years-post the pandemic. The dotted baseline is normalized from the years 2018-2019, and indexed to the last 7 week average as compared to those same 7 weeks of 2018/19, so it is not a ‘regression’. Since this is a relative index, it should exhibit no trend or growth rate (outside the context of Covid mortality peak periods of course). The current excess of 295 deaths reflects cancer deaths which are concealed from the underlying cause of death ICD code, and must be added back into the mix in order to make Excess Cancer Mortality comparable to its past baseline. We reconcile this into Chart 6 below, applying it only after the pandemic period ended.
Chart 5 – Cancer Concealment by Excess MCOD Attribution – stands at 295 concealed cancer deaths per week. In this practice, cancers are moved from the underlying cause of death line in Part I of the death certificate, to one of the multiple cause of death lines above the UCoD line, in excess of past practice. Once Covid has abated, this balance should trend back to zero. It has not. Therefore, in order to capture the true cancer mortality increase, these cancer deaths falsely attributed to Covid and other underlying causes must be added back into the total in the Excess Cancer Mortality chart below. These missing deaths are phased back in from Week 10 of 2022 (point of large decline in Covid mortality) onward.
When done correctly and ethically, cancer shows a clear inflection in growth rate at Week 14 of 2021 – the week of fastest uptake in the mRNA vaccine within the US population. In fact, every single chart we have run which depicts an excess mortality currently underway (not all of them do this), indicate this same inflection point of Week 14 of 2021.
This is unequivocal – the vaccine is causing excess death, and likely 95% of all of our Excess Non-Covid Natural Cause Mortality, 628,800 deaths, shown in Chart 3 above.
Moreover, cancer is a hard ship to turn; but once turned, will not come back to normal for perhaps decades. I contend that the outyear numbers will show that we have made, very possibly, a horrible mistake. Time will tell, but will also only whisper to those who bother to watch. I guarantee you that the smarter-than-thou among us, will not watch at all. Take this as a hint as to their agency and integrity. Nothing they proffer is honest – everything a rhetorical deflection and nothing more.
Chart 6 – Excess Cancer Mortality (USA) – stands at 5.4% or 435 persons per week over the last seven weeks on average. More alarmingly however, is the novel compound annualized growth rate (CAGR) of 1.9%, a significant departure from the old growth rate of 0.23%, normalized from the years 2014-2019 (dark orange line).
In corroboration of this alarming set of indices with regard to Cancer, is the constant dollar rise in expenditures for cancer treatment within the United States as of end-of-month October 2023. The rise in Producer Price Index-Neoplasm Treatment highlighted in Chart 7 below is adjusted for both inflation as well as its Medical Care Service (MCS) group price escalations. The actual raw figures show an even more aggressive increase than the 12.7% indicated on the right hand side of the chart.
Chart 7 – Excess PPI-Neoplasms Treatment Expenditures (USA) – US Citizens have non-linearly increased their real-dollar expenditures for all forms of cancer treatment since 6-months post the Week 14 2021 vaccine uptake inflection week. This six month lag in effect matches the same lag in effect which showed for cancer in the VAERS reports regarding reported adverse event tumor appearances.
USA Abnormal Clinical and Lab Findings Excess Mortality – 41%
The beige line in the chart below shows the CDC Wonder Abnormal Clinical and Lab Findings deaths per week for the four years prior, as well as latest year of the pandemic. The dotted baseline is normalized from the years 2014-2022, and ends with a pronounced (normal condition) hockey stick formation in the last 33 weeks of the timeframe depicted. The excess above this dotted line reflects excess mortality of uncertain cause (ICD code R99 in particular). As depicted in Chart 8 below, to date this comprises 46,500 concealed deaths.
Chart 8 – Abnormal Clinical and Lab Findings Excess Mortality (USA) – stands at 41% elevated versus historical standard. This represents the largest component (46.3%) of the Excess Non-Covid Natural Cause Mortality weekly total (shown in Chart 3 above) – deaths of unknown cause or abnormal findings in younger persons.
These deaths are broken out by type, in Chart 9 below. They comprise heavily, sudden, cardiac and circulatory deaths, as well as diseases of the respiratory system and cancers. The average age of this mortality cohort is 49 years old. These are not old people dying of Covid-19 nor Long Covid, they are dying from the mRNA vaccine – as it is clear that this excess began with the rollout of the vaccine in December 2020, as shown in Chart 8 above.
Chart 9 – Breakout of Suspended (Not Counted) Abnormal Clinical and Lab Findings Excess Mortality (USA) – these deaths are not counted in their final ICD codes just yet. Accordingly, they serve to deplete the ICD codes for sudden cardiac, respiratory, and cancer underlying causes of death. This is a significant problem for even a systems analyst and is one principal reason why actuarial groups did not pick up on the excess death until November 2023 – but we found this and now accommodate these in the Excess Non-Covid Natural Cause Mortality total each week. This, along with pull forward effect (PFE) is why we were the first analyst to detect the Non-Covid excess mortality, before even actuaries, epidemiologists, and health agencies.
Before we broach the topic of our Deviation from Trend charts, it is helpful to remember that each of these charts feeds into the Chart 2 ‘Balance Sheet’ above – some charts show increases and inflections, other charts show nothing and/or decreases. Regardless, they do not constitute stand-alone conjecture. If one adjusts the parameters of these charts, then they lose agreement with the overall Balance Sheet depicted in Chart 2 above – and suddenly we have Covid or its mRNA vaccine fictitiously curing a whole host of diseases. One cannot tweak the analytics by means of stand-alone, trivial, or rhetorical critique – because they miss this type of inconsistency.
Every disagreement one brings to the table must be accountable to fit coherently inside the entire model – or it is merely an attempt to deflect, deceive, or push an uninformed opinion, and nothing more.
USA Sudden Cardiac Death Excess Mortality Ages 0-54 – 37.9%
The blue line in the Deviation from Trend (DFT) chart below (Chart 10) shows the CDC Wonder Sudden Cardiac Death Mortality per week for the two years prior, as well as four years of the pandemic, for the age 0 to 54 bracket. The dotted baseline is normalized from the years 2014-2019, eroded by pull forward effect (PFE). As do many of the charts of this type (not in unaffected ICD sub-groups however), an inflection occurs at Week 14 of 2021. This is the impact of the mRNA vaccine. Note that we have redacted the final 26 weeks of this chart because that timeframe contains RXX ICD codes which artificially escalate in the final weeks (see Chart 8). So for conservancy’s sake we exclude these weeks from the analysis.
One should note that the mortality measured within this chart is not mortality related to aging-related heart disease. That grouping of ICD code mortality is actually down significantly (-28.3%). Do not let anyone equivocate between aging-related heart disease and sudden cardiac deaths in younger persons. In the latter we have a pronounced problem, which can be concealed by blending it with the PFE-impacted former. We caught the CDC using this trick in November 2023.
Chart 10 – Sudden Cardiac Death Mortality Ages 0-54 (USA) – stands at 37.9% elevated versus historic trend. This is a 19-sigma event. This is mitigated (concealed) by the severe pull forward effect in ICD codes for traditional heart disease (which is currently 28.3% lower than baseline because of a strong pull forward effect). When weight-averaged together, this results in the 0.9% elevated ‘Diseases of the Heart’ ICD code group in Chart 2 above. The PFE is in essence, serving to conceal the alarming excess cardiac death (shown above) in our younger age (0-54) cohorts.
It is important to note that the Sudden Cardiac Death Mortality arrival curve depicted in Chart 10 above was confirmed, as to inflection, excess, and trend, by the Society of Actuaries in their Covid-19 Mortality Survey Report of November 2023. The full report can be accessed by clicking here.
USA Cancer Excess Mortality Ages 0-54 – 25.5%
The blue line in the Deviation from Trend (DFT) chart below (Chart 11) shows the CDC Wonder Excess Cancer Mortality per week for the two years prior, as well as four years of the pandemic, for the age 0 to 54 bracket. The dotted baseline is normalized from the years 2014-2019, eroded by pull forward effect (PFE). As in many of the charts of this type (not in unaffected ICD sub-groups however), an inflection occurs at Week 14 of 2021. This is the impact of the mRNA vaccine. The soft increase which occurs in 2020 is dry tinder. These are individuals who died a couple weeks or months early, and as such, this data does not constitute actual trend data – unlike the data from 2022 and onward, which exhibits a strong and unqualified trend in this cancer mortality metric.
Chart 11 – Cancer Excess Mortality Ages 0-54 (USA) – stands at 25.5% elevated versus historic trend. This is an 11-sigma event. This is obfuscated (concealed) by the severe dry tinder surge in cancers for older age groups, as well as the subsequent years heavily-depleted by early Covid-19 deaths (PFE). When weight-averaged together, this results in the 5.4% elevated ‘Malignant Neoplasms’ ICD code group in Chart 2 above. The PFE is in essence, serving to conceal the alarming excess cancer death rate (shown above) in our younger age (0-54) cohorts.
USA All Non-Covid Natural Causes Excess Mortality Ages 0-24 – 41.7%
The blue line in the Deviation from Trend (DFT) chart below (Chart 12) shows the CDC Wonder All Non-Covid Excess Natural Cause Mortality per week for the two years prior, as well as four years of the pandemic, for the age 0 to 24 bracket. The dotted baseline is normalized from the years 2018-2019, mildly eroded by pull forward effect (PFE – does not impact younger ages as hard). As in many of the charts of this type, an inflection clearly occurs at Week 14 of 2021. Just as in Chart 11 above, this too is the impact of the mRNA vaccine.
Chart 12 – All Non-Covid Natural Causes Excess Mortality Ages 0-24 (USA) – stands at 41.7% elevated versus historic trend. This is a 12-sigma event. This is obfuscated (concealed) by the Covid-19 deaths during 2021 in older age groups; however, becomes clear when this age bracket is broken out separately. This metric is both alarming and condemning as regards the Covid-19 mRNA vaccine.
Thus it is clear that we have a problem, and that problem is the Covid-19 mRNA vaccine. This serves to broach the question, just how deadly has the vaccine, along with all our other panic-fueled mistakes, indeed been? We answer that question in Chart 13 below.
USA Full Covid-19 Mortality Accountability – 1,171,750 Manmade US Deaths
The chart below shows the total impact of our poor decision making as a society, in terms of total mortality, and compares that mortality to the various wars and conflicts our nation has suffered. Of key note inside this death tally are the 628,800 deaths inside the Vaccine/Sudden/Long Covid tally. 95% of this metric resulted from the impact of the mRNA vaccine itself, with the remaining 5% attributable to primarily Long Covid.
Chart 13 – Full Covid-19 Mortality Accountability – 1,171,750 Manmade US Deaths (USA) – stands at 1,171,750 excess deaths. This is obfuscated (concealed) by the Covid-19 deaths during the whole pandemic, as well as the pull forward effect inside older age brackets. This metric is also both alarming and condemning as regards the impact of lockdowns, denial of treatment (prior to hospitalization), and finally of course, the Covid-19 mRNA vaccine.
Such is the state of things pandemic, week 47 of 2023, our 195th week of the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic.
2nd Smartest Guy in the World
The State of Things Pandemic – Week 47 2023
by The Ethical Skeptic As of Week 47 of 2023, 3.75 years into the Covid-19 Pandemic and its aftermath, 1,526,543 excess deaths have been recorded to date. Now certainly, the SARS-CoV-2 virus was a deadly pathogen, itself 6.6 times more deadly than the typical annual mortality total for all influenza viruses combined. However, as the reader will infer fro…
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